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‘Volatility in petro prices putting pressure on fisc’

Volatility in petro prices putting pressure on fiscNEW DELHI: Concerned over the developments in Iraq, India today said volatility in petroleum
prices is putting pressure on its finances at a time when emerging economies are passing
through a phase of tepid economic activity.

“Recent developments in Iraq have created huge uncertainties with an overhang on the global
economy. The volatility in petroleum prices have put pressure on the fisc in countries like India,”
Finance secretary Arvind Mayaram said at a G20 Deputies Meeting in Melbourne.
The Indian government earlier said fuel supplies in the country will not be impacted by the
conflict in Iraq, which is the nation’s second largest crude oil supplier.

Against 18.7 million tonnes of crude oil imports planned by Indian Oil BSE-3.19 % Corp
and Hindustan Petroleum Corp in 2014, 50 per cent of the contracted quantity has already been
lifted.

India bought 25.1 million tonnes of crude oil from Iraq in 2013-14 fiscal. These imports included
those by PSU and private refiners like Reliance Industries BSE-0.34 % . An equal amount is
planned to be imported in current year.

Mayaram said the global context is increasingly challenging and becoming less supportive for
emerging economies growth prospects.

“Emerging markets are going through a phase of tepid economic activity, with some of the
major emerging economies seeing significant negative output gaps,” he added.

The reasons for the slowdown, Mayaram said, have been partly structural and exacerbated by
external environment especially increased volatility with unwinding of unconventional monetary
policies.

The senior Indian official further said that recent normalisation of unconventional monetary
policy in the US has been largely smooth, albeit low volatility in the markets should not lead to
complacency.

Backstop measure should continue to be reinforced and unwinding should be pursued with
close coordination among the member Central Banks minimising negative spillovers, as
committed by G20 Leaders, Mayaram said.

The mere announcement of withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve last
year has played havoc in the global capital and currency markets, including India. However, the
volatility was severely reduced as the US started a calibrated withdrawal of stimulus package,

popularly known as Quantitative Easing or QE.

In February this year, the G20 Ministers and the governments agreed to develop ambitious but
realistic policies with the aim to lift collective GDP by at least 2 per cent above the trajectory
implied by current policy.

The G20 Framework Working Group has been coordinating efforts and following the progress
in this regard and recently received and carried out peer review of members draft
comprehensive growth strategies.

The strategies outline the policy actions that members intend to take to meet their collective
ambition. The Framework Working Group had conducted a peer review of these preliminary
comprehensive growth strategies in June at Goa, India.

Mayaram said as per the assessment, policy actions, excluding on infrastructure and trade, are
expected to provide only an additional 0.8 per cent growth rather than the targeted 2 per cent.
“It is in investment including in infrastructure that we need to put our heads together to come up
with new and additional policy actions to unlock our growth potential.

“However, clearly the support that must be provided by the MDBs (multilateral development
banks) and the developed countries in intermediation of global capital flows into emerging
markets has also been very weak,” Mayaram added.

– PTI